Climate Crisis Threatens 89% Of World’s Iconic Surf Breaks, Study Finds

Climate change threatens 89% of the world’s most iconic surf breaks, with rising sea levels and coastal development putting renowned waves at risk, according to a new peer-reviewed study published in Climatic Change.

The threatened locations include Australia’s Noosa, California’s Santa Cruz, Croyde Beach in the UK and El Salvador’s Oriente Salvaje.

The study assessed 57 internationally significant surf breaks across eight countries, examining their vulnerability to rising sea levels, changing shorelines and other climate-related pressures.

Study Highlights Key Risks To Surf Breaks

The research found that 89% of the assessed surf breaks faced medium or high risk from limited shoreline resilience. Meanwhile, 79% were at medium or high risk from sea-level rise sensitivity, and 75% faced medium or high risk linked to seafloor composition.

Surf breaks rely on a delicate combination of seabed formations, tides, sediment movement and ocean swells. Rising seas and shifting sands can alter these conditions, potentially changing the shape, quality and consistency of waves.

Coastal infrastructure, including seawalls and jetties, can further complicate the problem by restricting the natural movement of sediment and limiting beaches’ ability to adapt to changing sea levels.

World Surfing Reserves Under Threat

Researchers examined 11 World Surfing Reserves across Portugal, Australia, Peru, Brazil, the United States, the United Kingdom, El Salvador and Costa Rica.

World Surfing Reserves are designated sites recognised for their environmental, cultural, historical and economic significance to surfing communities. The initiative aims to protect important surf breaks and their surrounding coastal environments.

Local stakeholders apply for the designation, which is awarded by an international non-profit organisation based on a site’s significance for surfing and the wider community.

Dan Reineman of California State University Channel Islands collaborated with Save The Waves and World Surfing Reserves to investigate how climate change could affect some of the world’s best-known waves.

Local Experts Assess Climate Vulnerability

Teams of local experts evaluated the surf breaks using the Surf Break Vulnerability to Climate Change Assessment Tool, known as SurfCAT.

The tool assesses several risk factors, including sensitivity to tide levels, sediment transport, shoreline adaptability, swell corridors and whether climate adaptation measures are included in local planning.

Trent Hodges of Save The Waves Coalition, a co-author of the study, said virtually all surf breaks would experience climate-related changes, although the scale of the impact would differ depending on local geographical conditions and the ability of governments and coastal agencies to respond.

Hodges also highlighted the role World Surfing Reserves could play in demonstrating practical measures to reduce future risks.

Researchers Call For Coastal Adaptation Planning

The researchers said the risks identified in the study could also affect surf breaks beyond the World Surfing Reserves network, including locations of regional and local importance.

They called for further assessments of vulnerable surf breaks and for the findings to be incorporated into coastal adaptation planning.

The research builds on a September 2025 report, Climate Vulnerability of California’s Natural Surfing Capital, which examined Santa Cruz and found that all surf breaks within its World Surfing Reserve were highly vulnerable to sea-level-rise sensitivity.

The report estimated that surfing generates at least $194.7 million annually in economic value for Santa Cruz, California, with more than 783,000 surf visits each year.

The findings highlight how climate change could affect not only coastal ecosystems and beaches but also surfing culture, tourism and the economies of communities that depend on these iconic waves.