Ukraine, Russia and US Set for Abu Dhabi Talks as Hopes for Peace Remain Low

Negotiators from Ukraine, Russia and the United States are set to meet in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday for the first trilateral talks in more than nine months, as diplomatic efforts to end Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War II face mounting challenges.

European representatives will also travel to the UAE capital, amid growing concerns over US President Donald Trump’s apparent willingness to negotiate a broader European security arrangement with Moscow.

Since returning to the White House, Trump has made ending the Russia-Ukraine war a foreign policy priority. However, previous diplomatic efforts have failed to deliver a breakthrough, while the US-Israeli war against Iran has diverted attention from the conflict.

Ukraine and its European allies fear Washington could pressure Kyiv into accepting a settlement heavily favouring Moscow. Those concerns have intensified as Trump appears to have shifted closer to Russia’s position.

Russia’s full-scale invasion, launched in February 2022, has killed hundreds of thousands, displaced millions and continued for nearly five years, with little indication that the Kremlin is prepared to abandon its military objectives.

Ahead of the negotiations, Trump suggested Ukraine could be forced to surrender territory, saying: “They’re going to end up with a little bit different shape, Ukraine.”

Russian forces control large parts of Ukrainian territory but have failed to capture the entire Donetsk region despite sustained advances. Moscow insists Kyiv must surrender the remaining areas under Ukrainian control, threatening to continue its offensive otherwise.

Ukraine, which has resisted a significantly larger invading force at enormous human cost, has repeatedly rejected any territorial withdrawal.

Deadly attacks overshadow negotiations

Russia intensified its bombardment of Ukraine ahead of the talks, carrying out one of its deadliest attacks yet. Kyiv said 55 people were killed in a frontline village while waiting for humanitarian assistance.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Moscow of escalating its attacks to strengthen its negotiating position, describing the strikes as part of a strategy aimed at “putting pressure on Ukraine’s position”.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who ordered the invasion in February 2022, has repeatedly rejected broader ceasefire proposals and direct negotiations with Zelensky.

The Abu Dhabi meeting will bring together the opposing sides through Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff. It will be the first such gathering since negotiations were held in Geneva in February.

After several unsuccessful rounds of diplomacy during the nearly five-year conflict, expectations remain modest.

“We don’t have any particular expectations,” a senior Ukrainian official in Kyiv told AFP.

Europe fears a new security deal without its consent

Trump last week suggested a “very big agreement” on Ukraine that would “involve all of Europe”, raising concerns that Washington and Moscow could attempt to reshape the continent’s security arrangements without sufficient European participation.

Shortly before launching its invasion in 2022, Russia had demanded that NATO withdraw its military presence from Eastern Europe, effectively seeking to roll back the alliance’s eastward expansion.

Sergei Ryabkov, the Russian diplomat who delivered those demands, will join Moscow’s delegation for the first time. The delegation will be led by Vladimir Medinsky, a nationalist aide to Putin.

Kushner said Monday that reaching a settlement would require direct talks between Russia and European countries on broader security arrangements affecting the continent. He added that Washington recognised the difficult decisions ahead.

The comments have heightened anxiety among European governments.

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said Europe did not need a new security architecture and urged Moscow to abandon its maximalist demands. He also warned against turning the Abu Dhabi meeting into a diplomatic performance without meaningful progress.

Zelensky has previously cautioned against what he called a “Yalta 2.0”, invoking the 1945 Yalta Conference, when Western leaders and the Soviet Union discussed Europe’s post-war order.

European officials to hold separate meetings

Ukraine’s chief negotiator, Rustem Umerov, said representatives from Britain, France, Germany and Italy, alongside NATO and European Union officials, would hold separate discussions with the Ukrainian delegation in Abu Dhabi.

The Kremlin, which has consistently opposed Europe’s involvement in negotiations, maintained that the main discussions would remain strictly trilateral.

Meanwhile, a recent ceasefire arrangement in Ukraine’s Kherson region has offered a limited sign of diplomatic possibility.

Ukrainian political expert Volodymyr Fesenko described the agreement as “a very positive precedent”, suggesting Kyiv could seek to reduce hostilities through similar local ceasefires.

However, questions remain over the broader direction of the negotiations. Kushner and Witkoff have faced criticism over their perceived conciliatory approach towards Moscow, while US media reports have alleged that American representatives are pursuing substantial behind-the-scenes business arrangements with Russia.

With territorial disputes unresolved, European security concerns growing and Russian attacks continuing, the Abu Dhabi talks face the difficult task of finding common ground between parties whose demands remain fundamentally opposed.