UN warns food prices could rise as climate change, energy costs fuel global inflation

The United Nations has warned of rising global food prices as extreme heat, geopolitical tensions and climate-related disruptions continue to threaten food security in several parts of the world.

According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), its Food Price Index averaged 131.1 points in July 2026, up 1% from a year earlier. The increase came despite some improvements in harvests, with millions of people still facing hunger and food insecurity.

The FAO attributed the pressure on food prices to recurring heatwaves, the effects of El Niño on agricultural production and growing geopolitical uncertainty. Conflicts have also disrupted energy markets and global supply chains, adding to the cost of food production and transportation.

Cereal, wheat prices surge

The FAO said prices of cereals, sugar and vegetable oils increased in July, while meat and dairy prices declined.

The cereal price index rose 3.4% from June, reversing the declines recorded during 2025. Global wheat prices climbed 5.8%, driven in part by disruptions to Black Sea exports amid the Russia-Ukraine war and the impact of extreme heat on crop yields.

The vegetable oil price index also reached its highest level since 2022. The increase was linked to stronger demand from Indonesia’s biodiesel sector and higher crude oil prices.

Millions remain at risk of hunger

Despite some progress in reducing hunger in countries such as Malawi, the UN said nearly 1.9 million people there continue to experience crisis-level acute food insecurity, classified as Phase 3 under the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) system.

Experts have warned that global food prices could face further pressure from inflation, below-average production of staple crops and the potential effects of El Niño during the 2026-27 rainy season.

Countries ranging from Afghanistan and Djibouti to Honduras are already dealing with severe food insecurity, with armed conflicts and climate change identified as major drivers.

Climate change adds to food security risks

The UN has repeatedly warned that climate change is making food systems increasingly vulnerable. Extreme heat, droughts and changing weather patterns can reduce crop yields while disrupting agricultural supply chains.

The organisation has also raised concerns about the deteriorating health of the world’s oceans, warning that damage to marine ecosystems could have serious consequences for biodiversity, food production and human well-being.

At the same time, the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence is creating new environmental concerns. Data centres powering AI systems require substantial amounts of electricity and water, adding pressure in regions already facing resource scarcity.

While UN members have adopted resolutions reaffirming their obligations to tackle climate change, calls are growing for greater accountability for environmental damage and illegal activities that threaten ecosystems.

A recent multinational law-enforcement operation in South America resulted in hundreds of arrests and the seizure of assets linked to illicit mineral and livestock activities in the Amazon, highlighting the growing international focus on environmental crimes.