Planet heating faster than ever before, new research shows

A new study published in Geophysical Research Letters has found that the pace of global warming has nearly doubled since 2015, raising concerns that the world could breach the Paris Agreement goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels before 2030.

From 1970 to 2015, global mean surface temperatures rose steadily at about 0.2°C per decade. Since 2015, however, the rate has accelerated sharply to around 0.35°C per decade. All ten of the hottest years on record have occurred since 2015, with 2023 and 2024 setting new global temperature records. In 2024, global temperatures exceeded an average rise of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

However, breaching the 1.5°C threshold under the Paris Agreement requires the average temperature to remain above that level for about 20 years, not just for a single year. According to the United Nations, temporary exceedances for a month or year are still significant warning signs that the world is nearing the long-term limit.

The impacts of rising temperatures are already visible worldwide, including more frequent and intense extreme weather events and steadily increasing global temperatures. Another recent study published in Nature found that coastal sea levels are around eight inches to a foot higher than many global coastline models indicate, suggesting that hundreds of millions more people may be at risk from rising seas than previously estimated.

To better understand the warming trend, researchers adjusted temperature data to account for short-term natural influences such as El Niño, volcanic eruptions and solar cycles. This allowed them to isolate the role of human-driven climate change. The analysis showed a clear acceleration in global warming since 2015 with more than 98% statistical certainty.

“We can now demonstrate a strong and statistically significant acceleration of global warming since around 2015,” said statistician Grant Foster, a co-author of the study. By filtering out natural variations, researchers were able to reduce background “noise” and make the long-term warming trend more visible.

The study also found that the warming rate over the past decade is higher than in any previous decade since global temperature records began in 1880. While the research did not identify specific causes for the acceleration, scientists warn that if the current trend continues, the 1.5°C limit set by the Paris Agreement could be exceeded on a long-term basis before 2030.

Lead author Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research said the future trajectory will largely depend on global action. While existing warming may be irreversible on human timescales, research shows that reaching net-zero carbon emissions could halt further temperature rise.

“How quickly the Earth continues to warm ultimately depends on how rapidly we reduce global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels to zero,” Rahmstorf said.