UN Warns 2025 Set to Be Among Hottest Years Ever, Says 1.5°C Goal Still Within Reach — If Action Is Swift

An alarming streak of record-breaking temperatures has put 2025 on track to become one of the hottest years ever recorded, the United Nations said on Thursday — warning, however, that the trend could still be reversed with immediate global action.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), this year is unlikely to surpass 2024 as the hottest on record but will rank second or third, extending a 10-year stretch of unprecedented global heat.

Releasing its annual State of the Global Climate report, the WMO said concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases have climbed to new record levels, “locking in” more warming for decades to come. The findings were published as dozens of world leaders gathered in Belem, Brazil, ahead of next week’s COP30 UN Climate Summit in the Amazon.

“These developments mean that it will be virtually impossible to limit global warming to 1.5°C in the next few years without temporarily overshooting the Paris Agreement target,” WMO chief Celeste Saulo told leaders at the Belem meeting.

The 2015 Paris Climate Accord aims to restrict global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels — ideally to 1.5°C. But Saulo stressed that while the outlook is grim, the scientific consensus remains that “it’s still entirely possible and essential to bring temperatures back down to 1.5°C by the end of the century.”

‘Moral Failure’ and Rising Surface Heat

UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the failure to meet the 1.5°C target as a “moral failure.”

At a press conference in Geneva, WMO climate science chief Chris Hewitt added that “we don’t yet know how long we would be above 1.5 degrees,” emphasizing that the duration “depends on decisions made now — one of the biggest challenges for COP30.”

The WMO reported that every year from 2015 to 2025 ranks among the warmest since global records began 176 years ago, with 2023, 2024, and 2025 topping that list.

The global mean near-surface temperature during the first eight months of 2025 stood at 1.42°C above the pre-industrial average. Both ocean heat content and greenhouse gas concentrations continued to rise from last year’s record levels.

A separate UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report released Tuesday confirmed that global greenhouse gas emissions grew by 2.3% in 2024 — driven primarily by India, followed by China, Russia, and Indonesia.

Melting Ice and Escalating Extremes

The effects of the warming trend are visible from pole to pole. The WMO said Arctic sea ice extent after this year’s winter freeze was the lowest ever recorded, while Antarctic sea ice remained well below average throughout the year.

It also documented a surge in climate-related disasters in 2025 — from devastating floods and heatwaves to wildfires — that had “cascading impacts on lives, livelihoods, and food systems.”

Despite these threats, the WMO praised recent progress in early warning systems, which it called “more crucial than ever.” Since 2015, the number of countries with such systems has more than doubled — from 56 to 119 — with notable gains among the least developed nations and small island states.

However, about 40% of the world’s countries still lack early warning systems. “Urgent action is needed to close these remaining gaps,” the WMO urged.