100 days to US midterms: Republicans risk losing House as Trump faces high-stakes test

With just 100 days until the US midterm elections on November 3, President Donald Trump and the Republican Party are confronting mounting political headwinds, as polls increasingly suggest Democrats are favored to retake the House of Representatives while Republicans fight to preserve their Senate majority.

Although Trump is not on the ballot, the outcome could define the final years of his presidency. A Democratic-controlled House would gain subpoena powers and committee control, paving the way for extensive investigations into the Trump administration and potentially reviving impeachment efforts.

Republicans currently hold only a slim House majority, while Trump’s approval ratings remain weak amid voter frustration over rising living costs, persistent inflation, elevated interest rates, and the ongoing war with Iran. According to Decision Desk HQ, Democrats have a 59% chance of winning the House, with a projected 224-211 majority.

Historically, the president’s party tends to lose seats during midterm elections, and only a small number of Republican-held districts need to flip for Democrats to take control.

Democrats argue Republicans have failed to address Americans’ economic concerns. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries has launched an affordability-focused campaign centered on grocery prices, gasoline, housing, and health care, while recent polling suggests voters now trust Democrats more on inflation, health care, and even immigration.

Republicans, meanwhile, are framing the election as a choice between conservative governance and what they describe as an increasingly progressive Democratic Party. They are emphasizing border security, tax cuts, and election integrity, including Trump’s push for the SAVE America Act, which Democrats criticize as a voter suppression measure.

The GOP also enters the campaign with advantages in redistricting and fundraising. Newly drawn congressional maps are expected to give Republicans a net gain of five to 12 favorable House seats, potentially offsetting some of the difficult national political environment.

The Senate remains highly competitive. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, while Democrats need to gain four seats to take control. Decision Desk HQ slightly favors Republicans to retain the chamber through a 50-50 split, with Vice President JD Vance casting tie-breaking votes if necessary.

Political analyst Chuck Todd says Republicans have shifted from being clear Senate favorites nine months ago to only “very small favorites,” while predicting Democrats could secure a 10- to 25-seat majority in the House.

Trump’s standing with voters continues to be a major concern for Republicans. A recent Economist/YouGov poll shows just 36% of Americans approve of his job performance. Political observers note that presidents with approval ratings below 45% almost always see their party lose congressional seats in midterm elections, making November’s vote one of the most consequential tests of Trump’s presidency.