Trump-Era Cuts to US Foreign Aid Could Cause Over 14 Million Deaths, Lancet Study Warns

More than 14 million of the world’s most vulnerable people—one-third of them small children—could die due to the Trump administration’s sweeping cuts to U.S. foreign aid, according to a new study published Tuesday in The Lancet.

Grave Impact Comparable to Global Crises

“For many low- and middle-income countries, the resulting shock would be comparable in scale to a global pandemic or a major armed conflict,” said co-author Davide Rasella of the Barcelona Institute for Global Health.

Why This Matters

Since taking office, President Donald Trump’s administration has drastically reduced funding to USAID and other foreign assistance programs, citing a broader effort to eliminate “wasteful spending.” But health experts and human rights advocates argue these cuts threaten decades of progress in global health—particularly in Africa and other lower-income regions.

By the Numbers

• 91 million lives saved: USAID-funded programs have helped prevent over 91 million deaths since 2000, including 30 million children’s lives.

• 14 million projected deaths: If current cuts continue, the world could see an additional 14 million deaths by 2030, with 4.5 million being children under age 5.

• Global funding leader: The U.S. contributed $61 billion in foreign aid last year—making up 38% of all UN-recorded humanitarian donations. Over half of that went through USAID.

Key Warning

“Our estimates show that, unless the abrupt funding cuts announced and implemented in the first half of 2025 are reversed, a staggering number of avoidable deaths could occur by 2030,” the study cautioned.

Background

In March, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that more than 80% of USAID’s programs had been canceled following a six-week review. Roughly 1,000 remaining programs would now be shifted to the State Department and managed in consultation with Congress.