Southwest Monsoon Arrives in Kerala, IMD Issues Orange Alert for Heavy Rainfall

The Southwest Monsoon officially reached Kerala on Thursday, marking the start of India’s crucial four-month rainy season, although its onset was delayed by around three days from the normal schedule, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The weather department issued an orange alert for the districts of Alappuzha, Kottayam and Ernakulam, warning of thunderstorms accompanied by heavy rainfall and gusty winds of up to 40 kmph over the next few hours.

Following its arrival in Kerala, the monsoon is expected to gradually advance northward, typically covering most parts of the country by mid-July.

The monsoon’s progress is closely monitored because of its vital role in India’s agriculture-dependent economy. Nearly 51% of the country’s cultivated land depends on rainfall, accounting for about 40% of total agricultural production. With almost half of India’s population reliant on farming for their livelihoods, a healthy monsoon is critical for rural incomes, food production and overall economic growth.

The IMD had earlier indicated that conditions were becoming favourable for the monsoon to advance into additional parts of the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, Lakshadweep, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and adjoining regions.

Heavy Rainfall Forecast

The weather agency has forecast isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall across Kerala over the coming days, while parts of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka are also expected to receive significant showers.

Thunderstorms accompanied by strong winds are likely across several regions of northwest, central, eastern and southern India.

Meteorologists attributed the delayed onset to a developing typhoon over the western Pacific, which diverted moisture away from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, along with a cyclonic circulation near the Lakshadweep region that slowed the monsoon’s advance.

El Niño Concerns Persist

Weather agencies have also warned of a high probability of El Niño conditions developing in the coming months. An El Niño event is typically associated with below-normal monsoon rainfall and hotter summer temperatures in India.

Forecasts indicate an 80% chance of El Niño forming between June and August, with the possibility of conditions persisting through November exceeding 90%. Experts caution that a moderate to strong El Niño could pose challenges for rainfall distribution during the monsoon season and raise concerns for agriculture and water availability.