Scientists detect a sudden acceleration in global warming

A new study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) has found that global warming has been accelerating more rapidly since around 2015, marking the first time researchers have detected a statistically significant increase in the pace of warming after accounting for natural climate variations.

By adjusting global temperature records to remove the effects of short-term natural influences, scientists were able to clearly identify a stronger long-term warming trend. The study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, suggests that the rate of temperature rise over the past decade has been significantly faster than in previous decades.

Faster warming in the past decade

Researchers estimate that global temperatures have increased by about 0.35°C per decade over the last 10 years, depending on the dataset analysed. Between 1970 and 2015, the warming rate averaged just under 0.2°C per decade. This makes the recent decade the fastest period of warming since modern temperature records began in 1880.

“We can now demonstrate a strong and statistically significant acceleration of global warming since around 2015,” said Grant Foster, a co-author of the study.

He explained that researchers filtered out natural climate “noise” from the observational data so the underlying long-term warming signal could be seen more clearly.

Removing natural climate variability

Short-term natural events such as El Niño, volcanic eruptions and variations in solar activity can temporarily push global temperatures higher or lower, making it harder to detect long-term trends.

To address this, the team analysed five widely used global temperature datasets from organizations including NASA and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. They also examined major climate datasets such as HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth and ERA5.

After adjusting the data for natural influences, the researchers found a consistent acceleration in warming since about 2013–2015 across all datasets.

“The adjusted data show an acceleration of global warming since 2015 with statistical certainty above 98%,” said Stefan Rahmstorf, the study’s lead author.

Detecting the shift in warming trends

The study focused on whether the rate of warming has changed, rather than identifying its exact causes. Scientists used statistical approaches including quadratic trend analysis and a piecewise linear model to identify shifts in temperature trends.

Even after accounting for factors like El Niño and a recent solar maximum, 2023 and 2024 still appear as the two warmest years ever recorded, although slightly cooler in the adjusted analysis.

Implications for the Paris climate target

The findings raise concerns about meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement. According to the researchers, if the current warming rate continues, the world could exceed the agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit before 2030.

Rahmstorf said the future trajectory of warming will largely depend on how quickly global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are reduced to zero.