Monsoon resumes advance after pause, likely to reach Mumbai within 48 hours

The southwest monsoon is showing signs of revival over Maharashtra and is expected to reach Mumbai within the next 48 hours, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. The weather agency clarified that the heavy rains received by Mumbai on Monday were pre-monsoon showers and not the official monsoon onset.

The revival, which comes after the monsoon stalled last week, has created favourable conditions for a gradual advance along the west coast and into central India. However, the country continues to face a major rainfall shortfall, with overall rainfall 43% below normal as of Monday, according to IMD data.

“The monsoon has seen a slight revival, especially on the western side. We had expected it to pick up around June 22 and 23,” said OP Sreejith, head of IMD’s climate monitoring and prediction group. He added that the absence of a low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal remains a concern and that stronger monsoon activity may only develop toward the end of the month.

Private weather agency Skymet also described the current improvement as a brief revival. Its vice-president Mahesh Palawat said the missing low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal, which may form around June 29, could delay the monsoon’s advance toward Uttar Pradesh and Delhi until the first week of July.

Delhi usually receives monsoon rainfall around June 27.

In its latest bulletin, the IMD said the southwest monsoon has advanced into more parts of the central Arabian Sea, Maharashtra, Telangana, remaining parts of Karnataka, and parts of Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand and Bihar.

The weather department said conditions are favourable for further progress into remaining parts of the central Arabian Sea, parts of Maharashtra including Mumbai, Telangana, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Bihar over the next two days.

As of Monday, the northern limit of the monsoon extended through Alibag, Pune, Nizamabad, Dantewada, Balangir, Sundargarh, Chatra, Gaya and Muzaffarpur.

The monsoon had entered parts of Maharashtra on June 8, four days after reaching Kerala, but its progress slowed due to a lack of supporting weather systems over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, along with the influence of El Niño conditions. Mumbai typically receives the monsoon around June 11.

Rainfall deficit remains a concern

By June 22, India should have received around 106 mm of rainfall based on the long-period average (LPA), but actual rainfall stood at only 60.6 mm.

Central India has recorded the biggest shortfall, with rainfall 67% below normal. East and northeast India are facing a 40% deficit, while south peninsular India is 28% below average and northwest India is down 15%.

The IMD has forecast that this year’s monsoon rainfall could be around 90% of the long-period average, with El Niño conditions expected to weaken rainfall activity, especially during the second half of the monsoon season.