Monsoon Fury to Linger: IMD Warns of Heavy September Rains

Residents in northwest India, already reeling under a 23% excess in monsoon rainfall since June 1, may see little respite in September. Weather models suggest that widespread heavy rain will persist well into the month, according to the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) extended range forecast.

Above-normal rainfall is likely across large parts of north, west, and central India until at least September 4, with wet conditions expected to continue through September 18. IMD had earlier predicted that the second half of the monsoon season (August–September) would record rainfall above 106% of the long-period average, with September projected to be wetter than August.

“In the next two to three days, there will be more rains in north India, including regions already experiencing heavy showers. Rainfall will then shift to central India. A good monsoon is expected for the next 10 days,” said M. Rajeevan, former secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences.

IMD chief M. Mohapatra explained that the extreme downpours in Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh were triggered by the interaction of a western disturbance with monsoon winds. On Tuesday, the Central Water Commission reported that flood levels had crossed the danger mark at five sites along the Chenab and Tawi rivers, while two more sites were nearing peak levels.

Although rainfall intensity over the western Himalayas is expected to ease, Mohapatra warned that wet conditions will persist elsewhere. “A well-marked low will traverse central India and bring more rain, followed by another low-pressure system around September 3,” he said.

Overall, India has seen 5% excess rainfall since June 1: a 23% surplus in the northwest, 9% in central India, and 5% in the south. East and northeast India, however, remain in deficit with 18% below normal.