Iran war diverts focus from Ukraine as emboldened Russia launches spring offensive

The war involving Iran has shifted global focus away from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, even as Europe’s largest conflict since World War II enters its fifth year and intensifies on the battlefield.

Recent days have underscored the escalation. Russia launched nearly 1,000 drones and dozens of missiles in one of its largest bombardments of Ukraine, while Kyiv responded with a massive overnight drone strike targeting Russian regions and Crimea.

Despite the global distraction, Ukraine remains Europe’s central foreign policy concern, amid fears that the Kremlin harbours broader ambitions. However, the administration of Donald Trump has scaled back diplomatic engagement with both sides as attention shifts to the Middle East, warning it could step away from peace efforts if progress stalls.

A recent US waiver easing oil sanctions has provided Moscow with a financial boost, allowing it to earn billions from stranded crude shipments. Volodymyr Zelensky criticised the move, saying it would strengthen Russia’s war effort.

Kyiv also faces mounting military pressure as US-made Patriot missile system units are redirected from Europe to the Middle East. Zelensky warned Ukraine will “definitely” face shortages of these critical air-defence systems.

In response, Ukraine is seeking to leverage its battlefield-tested drone technology, offering support to Gulf nations against Iranian threats in exchange for advanced air-defence systems. At the same time, a proposed €90 billion aid package from the European Union remains stalled due to opposition from Hungary.

On the ground, Russia is pressing a renewed offensive across eastern Ukraine, particularly in the Donbas, long a strategic target for Vladimir Putin. Fighting stretches along a 1,250-kilometre front line, with Moscow’s forces making slow, incremental gains while attempting to encircle key المدن and infrastructure hubs.

Russia currently controls around 20% of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, which it annexed in 2014. Analysts expect further offensives in southern regions such as Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk.

Meanwhile, civilian areas continue to bear the brunt of Russian strikes, with over 15,000 deaths reported by UN monitors. Ukraine has increasingly targeted Russia’s military infrastructure deep behind the front lines, striking refineries, depots and logistics hubs up to 1,500 kilometres away.

Diplomatic efforts remain stalled. Months of US-led talks have failed to yield progress on key issues, including territorial control and long-term security guarantees. European leaders accuse Moscow of delaying negotiations while advancing militarily, with Russia maintaining maximalist demands that would require substantial Western support for Ukraine to counter.