Exit Polls Predict Big Win for NDA in Bihar, Opposition Calls Projections ‘Fake’

With just days to go before the Bihar Assembly election results, most exit polls have projected a decisive victory for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), while the Opposition Mahagathbandhan has dismissed the forecasts, calling them unreliable and “pre-planned.”

According to surveys by Matrize, P-Marq, People’s Pulse, Bhaskar, People’s Insight, JVC, and Poll Diary, the NDA is expected to comfortably cross the majority mark of 122 in the 243-member Assembly, securing anywhere between 133 and 209 seats. The NDA coalition includes the BJP, Nitish Kumar-led JDU, Chirag Paswan’s LJP, Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha, and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular).

However, one outlier, Journo Mirror, predicted a surprise edge for the Opposition bloc, estimating 130–140 seats for the Mahagathbandhan—comprising the RJD and Congress—and just 100–110 seats for the NDA.

BJP Leaders Confident of ‘Clean Sweep’

BJP leaders hailed the exit polls as proof of public trust in Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.
“The cleanup of Congress and RJD from Bihar has begun,” BJP MP Dinesh Sharma said, predicting a two-thirds majority for the NDA.

Party leader Manoj Tiwari claimed that the Opposition had already “accepted defeat.” “Who will vote for those who glorify the mafia? Women and Gen Z voters trust PM Modi and Nitish Kumar,” he said.

Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary said the final results would surpass exit poll figures. “This is just an exit poll; we will go even higher in the exact poll,” he remarked, asserting that the people of Bihar “want peace and social harmony.”

Opposition Dismisses Exit Polls as ‘Pre-Planned’

The Mahagathbandhan has rejected the exit polls, citing the record 69% voter turnout as a sign of an anti-incumbency wave.
“High turnout usually means change. These exit polls are far from reality,” said RJD MP Sudhakar Singh, expressing confidence that the alliance will form the next government.

Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav went a step further, calling the surveys “pre-planned and fake.” Taking a swipe at the media, he said, “‘Jiska dana, uska gana’—those who fund them dictate their tune,” recalling how exit polls ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections had been proven wrong.

High-Stakes Contest

The Bihar elections were held in two phases—on November 6 and 11—with results scheduled for Friday, November 14.
According to the state’s Chief Electoral Officer Vinod Singh Gunjiyal, the overall turnout across both phases stood at 66%, nearly 10 percentage points higher than the previous assembly polls—an indication, analysts say, of a fiercely contested race.