Countdown Begins: 19 Days for PM Modi to Avert Trump’s 50% Tariff Shock — What Are India’s Options?

India has been thrust into the centre of Washington’s renewed push to pressure Russia over the Ukraine conflict, with US President Donald Trump announcing on August 6 a steep hike in tariffs on Indian goods — from 25% to 50% — citing New Delhi’s continued buying of Russian oil.

Labeling the move “unfair” and “unjustified,” India hit back, while Washington signaled there would be no trade negotiations until the tariff dispute was resolved. “No, not until we get it resolved,” Trump said in the Oval Office on Thursday.

The White House sees the penalties as a way to squeeze Moscow’s oil revenues and force President Vladimir Putin toward a ceasefire. The higher tariffs are set to take effect on August 27.

In New Delhi, Dammu Ravi, Secretary of Economic Relations at the Ministry of External Affairs, called the tariff hike illogical and “a temporary aberration,” while hinting at India’s intent to rebalance global partnerships.

That recalibration was evident as Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on Thursday night, discussing joint responses within BRICS to Trump’s levies. Brazil — also hit by the tariffs — stressed the need for collective action.

The day also saw India’s NSA Ajit Doval meet Putin in Moscow to reaffirm the countries’ strategic partnership, with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar set to visit Russia soon and Putin expected in India later this year.

In a potential signal of broader diplomatic repositioning, Modi is preparing for his first visit to China in over seven years to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin on August 31–September 1, with a bilateral meeting with Xi Jinping on the agenda. Beijing’s ambassador in New Delhi openly backed Modi against Washington’s tariffs, warning, “Give the bully an inch, he will take a mile.”

Domestically, Modi vowed “no compromise” on protecting farmers, the dairy sector, and fishermen, even if it came at a “heavy price.”

The tariff hike on India is part of a wider US trade offensive, which also targets sectors from semiconductors to steel, and could soon escalate against China, including possible penalties on its purchases of Russian oil.