COP30 in Belém: A Critical Moment for Climate Action Amid Global Headwinds

As the climate crisis deepens, with 2024 confirmed as the hottest year on record and the global temperature surpassing 1.5°C for the first time, climate action is slipping down the political agenda. Geopolitical tensions, rising populism, economic pressures, and the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement have weakened the multilateral framework that underpins global climate efforts.

While progress has been made since the Paris Agreement—including the rapid deployment of renewable energy and falling costs—the world remains far from the rapid, sustained emission reductions required to limit warming. COP30 is not just another climate conference; it represents a chance to reaffirm global commitment to multilateral action despite mounting challenges.

COP Evolution and Current Context

Over three decades, the Conference of the Parties (COP) has evolved from a technical negotiation into a massive global event. COP28 in Dubai attracted over 80,000 participants, driven by the growth of the “action agenda”—initiatives involving cities, businesses, and civil society alongside governments and international organizations.

The UNFCCC process is now at a turning point. With the Paris Agreement and its rulebook operational, the focus has shifted from crafting rules to driving their implementation, overcoming real-world barriers to climate action.

Belém’s location in the Amazon is symbolically significant but presents logistical challenges, including high accommodation costs that risk excluding delegations from poorer countries and civil society, potentially undermining the inclusivity and legitimacy of the conference.

Agenda and Key Challenges

The formal negotiating agenda in Belém is technically dense but lacks a single “big ticket” item. Expected decisions include:

• Establishing indicators to track progress on the global adaptation goal

• Guiding the just transition work program

• Advancing other technical issues, while debates on finance and the follow-up to the first global stocktake are likely to be contentious

The most pressing challenge is political: addressing the insufficient ambition of the new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for 2035. Early signals, including underwhelming commitments from China, suggest these targets may fall far short of pathways consistent with 1.5°C or even 2°C. Ensuring meaningful follow-up on climate finance and mobilizing support for developing countries remains critical, especially in light of cuts from developed nations.

Strategies for Success

The Brazilian presidency faces the task of galvanizing global action, with several strategies possible:

1. Political Leadership: Pre-COP summits could generate strong messages and momentum from heads of state.

2. Decision-Led Outcome: High-level decisions urging parties to “revisit and strengthen” targets, though potentially more rhetorical than substantive.

3. Implementation Forum: Restructuring the action agenda around themes from the global stocktake could focus on delivery, with a robust follow-up plan to ensure progress tracking and accountability.

A combined approach leveraging roadmaps like “Mission 1.5” and the “Baku to Belém Roadmap” could drive progress, using the COP’s soft power to influence broader international processes, including reforms to the global financial architecture.

The Role of the EU and Global Actors

Global instability and internal disagreements have put the EU’s credibility under scrutiny. The EU must:

• Submit an ambitious NDC aligned with the European Green Deal

• Strengthen climate finance commitments

• Enhance partnerships and engagement of European actors beyond government channels

COP30’s Potential Legacy

Belém can mark a shift in the COP process, moving from negotiation to implementation, improving the formal COP mechanism’s effectiveness, and strengthening links with the broader UN system. In the face of geopolitical and economic headwinds, COP30 represents a critical opportunity to reinvigorate multilateral climate action and put the world back on track toward limiting warming.