Bihar Exit Polls: 130–209 for NDA, Damp Squib for MGB, ‘Kingmaker’ Kishor Predicted to Draw Blank

Most exit polls released on Tuesday projected a clear advantage for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) — comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal (United) — in the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025, with estimates ranging between 130 and 209 seats in the 243-member House, where the majority mark is 122.

The Mahagathbandhan (RJD–Congress–Left alliance) is predicted to trail behind, with most surveys projecting 70 to 103 seats. The Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) of poll strategist Prashant Kishor, seen by some analysts as a potential “kingmaker,” is unlikely to make significant gains, with projections capped at 0–5 seats.

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Exit Poll Projections: Who Said What

Chanakya Strategies

• NDA: 130–138

• Mahagathbandhan: 100–108

• JSP: —

Peoples Pulse

• NDA: 133–159

• Mahagathbandhan: 75–101

• JSP: 0–5

Peoples Insight

• NDA: 133–148

• Mahagathbandhan: 87–102

• JSP: 0–2

Matrize

• NDA: 147–167

• Mahagathbandhan: 70–90

• JSP: 0

Bhaskar

• NDA: 145–160

• Mahagathbandhan: 73–91

• JSP: 0–3

• Others: 5–7

P-Marq

• NDA: 142–162

• Mahagathbandhan: 80–98

• JSP: 1–4

JVC

• NDA: 135–150

• Mahagathbandhan: 88–103

• JSP: —

• Others: 3–7

Polstrat

• NDA: 133–148

• Mahagathbandhan: 87–102

• JSP: —

• Others: 3–5

Poll Diary

• NDA: 184–209

• Mahagathbandhan: 32–49

• JSP: —

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The exit polls were released shortly after voting concluded across all 122 of Bihar’s 243 constituencies at 6 p.m. on Tuesday. According to the Election Commission of India (ECI), the voter turnout in the second phase of polling stood at 67.4%.

Final results will be announced on November 14, when counting begins at 8 a.m. under tight security arrangements across all 38 districts of the state.

Meanwhile, Today’s Chanakya and Axis My India exit polls are expected to be released on Wednesday, November 12.

While most agencies predict a close contest between the NDA and Mahagathbandhan, early trends suggest that Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party has failed to make an electoral impact in its debut outing.