Bangladesh votes in world’s first Gen Z-inspired election

For years under former prime minister Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh’s opposition was largely absent from the streets during elections — either boycotting polls or crippled by mass arrests of senior leaders. Ahead of Thursday’s vote, those roles have reversed.

Hasina’s Awami League has been banned, while many young people who helped topple her government in a 2024 uprising say the upcoming election will be Bangladesh’s first genuinely competitive poll since 2009, when Hasina began her 15-year rule.

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is widely expected to emerge as the largest party, though a coalition led by the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami is mounting a strong challenge. A new party driven by Gen-Z activists under 30 — prominent during the anti-Hasina protests — has aligned with Jamaat after failing to convert its street mobilisation into an electoral base.

BNP chief Tarique Rahman told Reuters his party, contesting 292 of the 300 parliamentary seats, was confident of winning “enough to form a government.”

Analysts say a decisive result in the February 12 election — rather than a fractured mandate — is crucial to restoring stability in the nation of 175 million. Hasina’s ouster triggered months of unrest and disrupted major industries, including the garments sector, the world’s second-largest exporter.

The outcome will also shape the balance of influence between regional heavyweights China and India.

“Opinion polls suggest the BNP has an edge, but a significant portion of voters remain undecided,” said Parvez Karim Abbasi, executive director of Dhaka’s Center for Governance Studies. “Generation Z, which makes up about a quarter of the electorate, will play a decisive role.”

Across Bangladesh, black-and-white posters bearing the BNP’s “sheaf of paddy” symbol and Jamaat’s “scales” hang from poles, trees and roadside walls, alongside those of independent candidates. Party shacks on street corners blare campaign songs — a stark contrast to past elections dominated by the Awami League’s “boat” symbol.

Opinion polls suggest the once-banned Jamaat — which opposed Bangladesh’s India-backed independence from Pakistan in 1971 — is on track for its strongest electoral performance yet, even if it does not win outright.

China’s influence rises as India’s wanes

The election verdict will also influence Bangladesh’s foreign alignments. China’s footprint has expanded since Hasina, widely viewed as pro-India, fled to New Delhi after her removal, where she remains.

While India’s influence appears to be declining, analysts say the BNP is relatively more aligned with New Delhi than Jamaat. A Jamaat-led government could tilt closer to Pakistan, a Muslim-majority nation and long-time rival of Hindu-majority India. Jamaat’s Gen-Z ally has cited “New Delhi’s hegemony” as a major concern and recently held meetings with Chinese diplomats.

Jamaat, which advocates governance based on Islamic principles, has said it is not aligned with any foreign power. Rahman has said a BNP government would maintain friendly relations with any country that “offers what is suitable for my people and my country.”

Bangladesh — one of the world’s most densely populated countries — is grappling with high inflation, dwindling foreign reserves and slowing investment. These pressures have pushed it to seek large-scale external financing since 2022, including billions of dollars from the IMF and World Bank.

Corruption tops voter concerns among the 128 million electorate, followed by inflation, according to a survey by Dhaka-based think tanks Communication & Research Foundation and Bangladesh Election and Public Opinion Studies. Analysts say Jamaat’s reputation for clean governance is boosting its appeal more than its religious ideology.

“Voters prioritise corruption and economic issues over symbolic or religious factors and expect leaders to show competence, care and accountability,” the survey found.

Tarique Rahman, son of former prime minister Khaleda Zia, remains the frontrunner to lead the next government. However, if the Jamaat-led coalition finishes ahead, its chief Shafiqur Rahman could stake a claim to the top job.

Mohammad Rakib, 21, voting for the first time, said his hope was simple.

“Everyone was tired of the Awami League. People couldn’t even vote during national elections. People had no voice,” he said. “I hope the next government — whoever comes to power — ensures freedom of expression.”