Al-Shabab remains biggest threat to Somalia, Kenya, UN experts warn

Al-Shabab continues to pose the most serious and immediate threat to peace and stability in Somalia and the wider region, particularly neighbouring Kenya, according to a report by UN experts released on Wednesday.

Despite sustained operations by Somali and international forces, the Al-Qaeda-linked group’s capacity to carry out “complex, asymmetric attacks in Somalia remains undiminished,” the experts said. They pointed to the group’s ability to strike high-profile targets, including in the capital Mogadishu, where it attempted to assassinate Somalia’s president on March 18.

The panel said the threat is reinforced by Al-Shabab’s sophisticated extortion networks, forced recruitment, and an effective propaganda machine, which together help sustain its operations.

On Tuesday, the UN Security Council unanimously voted to extend the mandate of the African Union’s support and stabilisation mission in Somalia until December 31, 2026. The force comprises 11,826 uniformed personnel, including 680 police officers.

The experts warned that Al-Shabab also poses a significant danger to Kenya, carrying out attacks ranging from improvised explosive devices targeting security forces to assaults on infrastructure, kidnappings, home raids and livestock theft. This year, the group has averaged about six attacks per month in Kenya, largely in Mandera and Lamu counties along the Somali border.

According to the report, Al-Shabab’s long-term objective remains the overthrow of Somalia’s government, the expulsion of foreign forces and the creation of a “Greater Somalia” uniting ethnic Somalis across east Africa under strict Islamic rule.

The panel also examined Islamic State activity in Somalia, noting that fighters are recruited from around the world, mainly from east Africa. By the end of 2024, the group known as ISIL-Somalia was estimated to have more than 1,000 fighters, at least 60% of them foreign nationals.

While smaller and less well-funded than Al-Shabab, ISIL-Somalia’s expansion nonetheless represents a “significant threat to peace and security in Somalia and the broader region,” the experts said.