Iceland votes on restarting EU membership talks amid Trump’s Greenland ambitions

Icelanders went to the polls Saturday to decide whether the country should restart long-stalled negotiations to join the European Union, with US President Donald Trump’s push for control of nearby Greenland casting a shadow over the referendum.

The question before around 265,000 eligible voters was straightforward: Should Iceland resume negotiations on EU membership?

A “yes” vote would allow Iceland to reopen accession talks with the European Commission, covering 35 policy areas ranging from the economy and trade to human rights. Supporters argue that closer ties with the EU could strengthen Iceland’s economic stability and provide additional security if Trump were to make similar territorial demands of Iceland.

A “no” vote would effectively shelve the issue for years. Opponents argue that EU membership could threaten Iceland’s lucrative fishing industry and surrender too much national sovereignty. They also point out that Iceland already benefits from access to the EU’s single market and the Schengen free-travel area without being a member.

Opinion polls suggested a close contest, while more than 20% of voters had already cast ballots ahead of election day, according to Iceland’s public broadcaster RÚV.

“This has been a tight race, extremely exciting,” Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir said after voting. She said the referendum had elevated discussions about Iceland’s relationship with Europe, its position in the world and the country’s broader geopolitical situation.

Greenland dispute raises security concerns

Trump’s repeated statements about taking control of Greenland have changed the political atmosphere in Iceland, which lies about 290 kilometres from the self-governing Danish territory.

Iceland is a NATO member, but concerns intensified after Trump mistakenly referred to Iceland several times while discussing his plans for Greenland earlier this year.

Although Trump has said he would not use force to seize Greenland, his interest in the territory has continued.

That has prompted a question among some Icelanders: If Greenland were ever taken over by the United States, could Iceland be next?

For EU supporters, the answer is that membership could provide an additional political and economic shield against potential pressure from Washington.

Iceland’s left-leaning coalition government, elected in 2024, has backed restarting EU talks and brought forward the referendum that had originally been planned for next year.

EU membership debate returns after a decade

Iceland’s EU debate dates back decades. The country formally abandoned its previous attempt to join the bloc in 2015, largely because of concerns about control over its rich fishing grounds.

Fishing remains central to Iceland’s economy and national identity. The country’s cold Arctic waters support major cod and haddock fisheries, while generations of Icelanders have depended on the sea for their livelihoods.

EU membership would require Iceland to participate in the bloc’s common fisheries policy, potentially giving fishing fleets from countries such as Spain and the Netherlands greater access to Icelandic waters. The Icelandic government has indicated it would seek special arrangements, potentially including a full exemption from the policy.

Even a “yes” vote would not make Iceland an EU member. It would only restart negotiations. Icelanders would later vote on whether to accept any membership agreement reached with the bloc.

Fishing and sovereignty at heart of debate

For many Icelanders, the referendum is about more than economics. It touches on national sovereignty and identity.

Iceland gained independence from Denmark in 1944 and has a long history of resisting pressure from larger European powers. Its determination to control its fishing grounds led to the so-called Cod Wars with Britain in the 1970s, disputes Iceland ultimately won.

Supporters of EU membership say closer integration with Europe would help Iceland tackle cross-border challenges such as climate change. They also argue that adopting the euro could provide greater monetary stability than Iceland’s volatile króna and potentially help reduce inflation and interest rates.

“Being in good connection and good relations with Europe is absolutely the best thing that Iceland has ever done and should continue,” Haukur Hallsson said after voting in favour of reopening EU discussions. “Iceland should definitely look more to Europe than the White House at this moment.”

Opponents say Iceland already enjoys many advantages of European integration through its existing agreements while retaining control over its own policies.

They argue that Iceland’s influence within the European Parliament would be limited and say the country should preserve the freedom to negotiate independent trade agreements, including with countries such as China.

Agust Hallvardsson said he voted against restarting EU talks because protecting Iceland’s control over its fisheries and agriculture was essential.

“What’s happening in the EU is not to my liking,” he said. “I think we’re better off alone.”