Record El Nino Could Make 2027 World’s Hottest Year, UK Weather Agency Warns

This year’s El Nino could become the strongest in more than a century, potentially making 2027 the hottest year ever recorded globally, Britain’s national weather agency warned Friday.

El Nino occurs when sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise significantly above normal, disrupting global wind patterns, atmospheric pressure and rainfall while pushing up average temperatures worldwide.

Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the UK Met Office, said the developing event could peak at more than 3°C above average — a level he described as unprecedented in modern climate records.

Pacific waters are already around 2.6°C above a rolling 30-year average, according to the Climate Brink dashboard, which uses data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Forecasts compiled by the dashboard indicate the anomaly could reach around 3.9°C in November, surpassing the roughly 3°C anomaly recorded during the powerful 2015 El Nino.

El Nino is officially classified when Pacific Ocean temperatures rise at least 0.5°C above the baseline. Although it is a natural climate cycle, scientists say human-caused climate change can amplify its effects.

The Met Office warned that an exceptionally strong El Nino would add to existing climate pressures following a summer marked by severe heat waves across Europe.

Scaife said the projected event would far exceed recent experience and could have major worldwide climate impacts. He added that he had never seen an El Nino signal this strong in forecasting models, noting that even a 2°C rise would constitute a “really big event.”

If current forecasts hold, the resulting global temperature increase could make 2027 the hottest year on record.