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From mid-April into May 2026, vast parts of India and Pakistan endured a punishing heatwave that pushed temperatures above 46°C in several cities, exposed hundreds of millions to dangerous conditions, and strained power grids, healthcare systems and agriculture across the region.

The prolonged spell of extreme heat triggered severe human and economic consequences in one of the world’s most densely populated regions. At least 37 heat-related deaths were reported in India, while Pakistan recorded 10 deaths in Karachi alone. The heat also drove record electricity demand as households and businesses scrambled for cooling, while drought conditions spread across more than one million square kilometres of farmland, threatening crops and livelihoods.

The crisis unfolded during major election periods in the region, raising concerns about voter safety, disruptions to campaigning, and added pressure on already stretched public infrastructure.

Climate change tripled the likelihood of the heatwave

According to a new rapid attribution analysis by World Weather Attribution, human-caused climate change made the 2026 South Asian heatwave approximately three times more likely and around 1°C hotter than it would have been in a pre-industrial climate.

Scientists analysed both observational weather data and simulations from 19 climate models to assess how global warming influenced the event.

The study found that the hottest 15-day period of April 2026 is no longer considered rare in today’s climate. Researchers estimate there is now roughly a 20% chance — or a one-in-five-year probability — of experiencing a similar heatwave during April.

Researchers also found that the risk of extreme heat is increasingly shifting earlier into the pre-monsoon season, meaning South Asia is now facing a much longer annual period of dangerous temperatures.

Earlier and longer heatwaves becoming the new normal

The report warns that April heat extremes are intensifying faster than those in May, exposing populations to prolonged periods of dry and humid heat even before the monsoon season begins.

Scientists say this trend has serious implications for public health, agriculture, labour productivity and economic stability across the region.

The analysis also examined changes since 2016 — another year marked by devastating South Asian heatwaves. Over the past decade alone, with global temperatures rising by roughly 0.4°C, similar heat events have become about 35% more likely and around 0.3°C more intense.

If global warming continues, researchers warn that events like the April 2026 heatwave could soon become relatively common.

With an additional 1.3°C of global warming, the study projects such heatwaves would become more than twice as likely again and about 1.2°C hotter than today.

Vulnerable communities remain most at risk

Despite investments in Heat Action Plans by India and Pakistan, researchers say extreme heat continues to disproportionately affect poorer and more vulnerable populations.

Outdoor labourers, people living in informal housing, and workers dependent on daily wages face the highest risk of heat illness and death. Scientists also noted that heatwaves are often not officially classified as disasters in either country, limiting access to emergency relief funding.

The report further highlighted how rising humidity — partly linked to irrigation and atmospheric aerosols — is worsening dangerous “humid heat” conditions across South Asia, even in areas where aerosols may slightly offset surface warming.

Scientists call for long-term adaptation

Researchers acknowledged that India has built one of the world’s most comprehensive heat-response systems focused on emergency management and early warning measures.

However, they argue that future planning must move beyond crisis response toward long-term climate adaptation strategies, including urban redesign, heat-resilient infrastructure and better protections for vulnerable communities.

The study reinforces findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which has repeatedly warned that climate change is increasing the frequency, duration and severity of extreme heat events across South Asia.

Scientists say the 2026 heatwave offers another stark warning that what were once considered exceptional temperature extremes are rapidly becoming the region’s new climate reality.