Poll of polls: DMK set for win in Tamil Nadu, Indian National Congress-led comeback in Kerala; National Democratic Alliance strong in Assam, suspense in West Bengal

After a month-long electoral exercise across four states and one Union Territory, a poll of exit polls points to major gains for the Bharatiya Janata Party in Assam and gives it an edge over Mamata Banerjee’s All India Trinamool Congress in West Bengal.

In the south, projections suggest a return of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu and a comeback for the Congress-led United Democratic Front in Kerala after a decade.

An outlier forecast by Axis My India predicts a dramatic debut for Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, projecting 98–120 seats in Tamil Nadu’s 234-member assembly.

Bengal: Tight and high-stakes

West Bengal remains the most closely watched contest. Several exit polls give the BJP a narrow majority (146–175 seats), potentially breaching the TMC’s long-held stronghold. However, other projections foresee a fourth straight landslide for the ruling party, highlighting the uncertainty in the state. The BJP’s rapid rise—from just three seats in 2016 to 77 in 2021—has turned it into the principal challenger.

Assam: BJP set for another term

In Assam, projections are unanimous: the BJP is expected to retain power comfortably. A poll of polls gives Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s party around 88 seats in the 126-member assembly, far ahead of the Congress.

Tamil Nadu: Status quo, with a twist

Most projections suggest M. K. Stalin’s DMK will secure a second consecutive term with around 130 seats, while the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam alliance may get about 65. However, Vijay’s TVK could emerge as a significant disruptor, with estimates suggesting around 30 seats, potentially denting both major Dravidian parties.

Kerala: Likely shift in power

In Kerala, exit polls point to a return of the UDF, with around 77 seats, unseating the Left Front led by Pinarayi Vijayan. If confirmed, it would mark a major political shift in the state and a boost for the Congress after recent electoral setbacks.

Votes will be counted on May 4, when the accuracy of these projections—and the political future of these states—will become clear.