In a world where brute force increasingly outweighs diplomacy and dialogue, India must urgently reduce its vulnerabilities, strengthen its capacities and expand its capabilities.
While Donald Trump has embraced the “might is right” doctrine in actions against Venezuela earlier and now Iran alongside Israel, Vladimir Putin has pursued a similar approach in Ukraine since 2022. At the same time, Xi Jinping’s China has steadily applied pressure on Taiwan for over a decade. Just as the Ukraine war drew Europe deeper into confrontation with Moscow, the Iran conflict has triggered a global energy shock by targeting commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf, making the entire Middle East and beyond collateral damage in the unfolding crisis.
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly 20% of global oil supply passes—have rattled markets and threatened energy flows worldwide.
The short-sightedness of past Indian governments becomes evident when viewed against this backdrop. The United States and Russia are energy secure, while China has ensured its supplies through pipelines and long-term contracts. India, long committed to peace and non-alignment, remains vulnerable as a major importer of oil, LNG, LPG and fertilisers.
The challenge is compounded by the fact that India is not yet an original equipment manufacturer of most major military platforms. Instead, it relies heavily on imports from countries such as Russia, France, Israel and the US for critical defence systems. The armed forces often prefer foreign equipment because domestic design and manufacturing by public sector units can take years to deliver technologies that risk becoming outdated even before induction.
Although Narendra Modi has repeatedly championed Aatmanirbhar Bharat and the need for indigenous defence platforms, India’s dependence on imported systems and stand-off weapons has not declined dramatically. A lack of trust between the civilian-military bureaucracy and the domestic defence industry often leads both sides to choose the safest—typically foreign—option.
For a country that is now the world’s fourth-largest economy and among the leading military powers, continued reliance on external suppliers for core areas such as military manufacturing, external intelligence and advanced science and technology is untenable. Compounding the problem are layers of bureaucratic compliance that discourage entrepreneurs willing to invest in strategic sectors.
Before addressing solutions, however, India must first clarify its strategic objective. Concepts such as “strategic autonomy” risk becoming rhetorical if they are not backed by concrete implementation. Sections of the Indian bureaucracy still interpret foreign policy decisions through the prism of being pro- or anti-US, Russia or China.
Shaped by decades of non-alignment, socialism and idealistic diplomacy, many officials remain uncomfortable with the realities of power politics. Yet global powers routinely deploy lobbyists and influencers within India to advance their interests.
The ongoing US-Israel-Iran confrontation should serve as a wake-up call for India’s security planners. Every major actor in this conflict is pursuing its own interests, with little concern for the energy security of other nations. The targeting of civilian shipping and the heavy bombardment of Iran have pushed the world toward a dangerous brink.
If New Delhi intends to move into pole position in the global strategic order, it will need sweeping reforms in governance, defence production and bureaucratic functioning. In the high-stakes arena of global power politics, there are no prizes for merely finishing the race.
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