Bihar Exit Polls 2025: NDA Poised for Return to Power, Mahagathbandhan Trails Far Behind
Exit poll projections from 11 major pollsters have predicted a clear victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar, placing the ruling bloc comfortably ahead of the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) as the assembly elections concluded on Tuesday evening.
The Election Commission of India will announce the official results after vote counting on Friday, November 14. However, the exit polls have offered an early indication of the likely outcome of this high-stakes contest.
Ten of the 11 agencies projected an NDA sweep, while only one suggested a tight race between the ruling and opposition alliances.
What Are Exit Polls?
Exit polls are post-voting surveys designed to gauge voter preferences and predict election outcomes. Conducted as voters leave polling booths, these polls assess how and why different demographics voted.
While exit polls can offer insights into voter sentiment and potential trends, their accuracy can vary due to sampling errors and other factors. The final results may differ from the projections, but exit polls often serve as a reliable early indicator of the political mood.
Bihar Exit Poll Results 2025
Across the board, projections forecast a comfortable win for the NDA, leaving the Mahagathbandhan in a distant second and Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) with negligible numbers.
Seat projections by pollster:
| Pollster | NDA | MGB | JSP | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Axis My India | 121–141 | 98–118 | 0–2 | 1–5 |
| Today’s Chanakya | 148–172 | 65–89 | – | 3–9 |
| Matrize | 147–167 | 70–90 | 0–2 | 2–5 |
| P-Marq | 142–162 | 80–98 | 1–4 | 0–3 |
| Peoples Pulse | 133–159 | 75–101 | 0–5 | 2–8 |
| Dainik Bhaskar | 145–160 | 73–91 | – | 5–10 |
| People’s Insight | 133–148 | 87–102 | 0–2 | 3–6 |
| JVC | 135–150 | 88–103 | – | 3–7 |
| Polstrat | 133–148 | 87–102 | – | 3–5 |
| Poll Diary | 184–209 | 32–49 | – | 1–5 |
| Vote Vibe | 125–145 | 95–115 | 0–2 | 1–3 |
Poll Diary projected the highest seat count for the NDA (184–209), while Axis My India gave the lowest range (121–141). For the Mahagathbandhan, Axis My India offered the highest range (98–118), and Poll Diary the lowest (32–49).
Campaign Context
The NDA, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal (United) (JDU), banked on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 11-year tenure at the Centre and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s two-decade-long governance in Bihar.
The Mahagathbandhan, consisting primarily of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress, centered its campaign around criticism of Nitish Kumar’s administration, raising issues of corruption, unemployment, and governance failures. Its manifesto promised government jobs, exam paper-leak laws, loan waivers for women’s self-help groups, and financial aid schemes for women.
Key Takeaways from the Exit Polls
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NDA Set for Strong Comeback: Most pollsters project a decisive return for the NDA, reflecting broad voter satisfaction across regions.
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Regional Trends: The NDA appears to be performing strongly in all parts of Bihar except Seemanchal, traditionally a Mahagathbandhan stronghold. Axis My India, for instance, gave 15 seats to the opposition in this region, compared to eight for the NDA.
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Tejashwi Leads in CM Preference: Despite the NDA’s projected lead, RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav emerged as the preferred choice for chief minister in multiple surveys. Axis My India found Tejashwi at 34% versus Nitish Kumar’s 22%, while Peoples Pulse reported 32% for Tejashwi and 30% for Nitish.
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Prashant Kishor’s JSP Falters: Hopes that Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party would make a breakthrough appear dashed. Most pollsters gave JSP between zero and five seats, indicating minimal impact.
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